The Fuel Crisis Hitting London PHV Drivers
Diesel stands at 191.50p per litre as of April 2026, the highest since the Ukraine energy crisis of 2022. Between 28 February and 23 March 2026, diesel rose 29p per litre in three weeks, driven by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Cost Per Mile
- Pre-conflict diesel (143p/litre) at 50mpg: 13.0p per mile
- Current diesel (191.5p/litre) at 50mpg: 17.4p per mile
- Increase per mile from conflict alone: +4.4p
- At 30,000 miles/year: +1,320 annual cost
Analyst Forecasts
- Q3 2026: Goldman Sachs base case Brent $82/barrel. Hormuz closed: $120/barrel. Diesel: 190-210p/litre.
- Q4 2026: Risk scenario $93-115/barrel. Macquarie: 40% probability Brent hits $200 if conflict continues.
- 2027: Goldman base case $76-80/barrel, permanently above pre-war levels.
What Drivers Are Demanding
- Minimum 10p per mile fuel supplement from all platforms
- Quarterly review tied to RAC published diesel price index
- Platform commission reduced 25% to 15% when diesel exceeds 180p/litre
- Quarterly earnings transparency reports from all platforms